The Legend Looks to Grow His Status in Paris

It’s spring marathon time. In less than two weeks, the London Marathon takes place, as many of the world’s best come together on the fast course, with an eye on upsetting local favorite Mo Farah in his marathon debut. If that wasn’t enough, the Boston Marathon takes place a week later, which is sure to be chock-full of emotion, as an equally talented group looks to come away with World Marathon Major points.

But those aren’t even the start of the major spring marathon happenings. That would be this weekend at the Paris Marathon, where the greatest distance runner of the past decade, Kenenisa Bekele, debuts at the distance. He’ll have plenty of competition, and winning your first time out is very hard to do. So we ask, yes or no, will Kenenisa Bekele win the Paris Marathon?

NO

It’s incredibly hard to win a marathon on a first try, no matter who you are. Bekele certainly has the “greatest of all-time” track credentials, but the track and roads are so different and there are different intangibles compared to the very controlled setting of a track race. Paris is one of the best marathons in the world for a reason, and while this year’s field might not be as strong as years past, it still put together quite the field.

Bekele faces some experienced competition, as well as a fellow marathon debutant or two, who could pull the upset. Fellow Ethiopians Abdullah Shami, Azmeran Bekele and Getachew Negari Terfa all have strong marathon credentials. Shami has the fastest PR in the field, having run 2:05:42 in 2012 at the Dubai Marathon, however, he was very quiet in 2013, so his fitness remains a question.  A. Bekele ran a big three minute PR earlier this year at the Dubai Marathon, where he scored a 2:07:12 finish, while Negari Terfa went undefeated in his two marathons in 2013, winning the Xiamen and Rome Marathons in 2:07:32 and 2:07:56 respectively.

Another athlete to watch, and will certainly challenge Bekele, is Kenya’s Mark Kiptoo. The 37-year old ran his marathon debut this past fall, running an amazing 2:06:16 at the Frankfurt Marathon. The past five years, the Paris Marathon has averaged a 2:06-flat winning time. So all of the noted competitors have a chance to run that, meaning Bekele will need to certainly get after it right from the start.

Then, if that wasn’t enough competition, countryman Mulle Wasihun could seek the upset. Wasihun seems made for the marathon distance and trounced an incredibly strong field at the Paris Half-Marathon earlier this season, winning by 32 seconds in 60:08. Needless to say, Bekele has his hands full and is in no way guaranteed a victory, especially with how much marathon experience many of his competitors have.

With all that said, here’s why he could win…

YES

When Bekele committed to run Paris, you can bet the race organizers were jumping up and down with joy. He’s arguably the greatest distance runner of all time and fans have been eagerly anticipating his debut for a few years now. With so much hype, it’d be pure gold if Bekele comes out and beats the field to win his debut. The Paris organizers may not publicly say they want that, but you can bet their tailoring the race to fit the Ethiopians needs a bit more than the other athletes in the field.

Not only does Bekele have the best track credentials in the field, but he has a few other things working in his favor. First, Bekele beat Mo Farah (and Haile Gebrselassie) at the Great North Run, his debut half marathon, this past fall. To beat both of those fellow superstars, especially outkicking Farah, had to give him a bit of confidence on the roads.

Second, Bekele has been putting in 130-150 mile weeks, at altitude, in preparation for Sunday’s race. He’s as strong as he’s ever been, and while he might not be as sharp as he’s been in the past from a speed standpoint, there is no doubting he has the complete tool set to simply rock a marathon.

Third, and this relates back to the Paris Marathon organizing committee, Bekele picked Paris because he can control his surroundings at least a bit. There are no clear-cut co-favorites in the field. There are certainly others, like Mark Kiptoo, Abdullah Shami and Mulle Wasihun who all have a chance to win, but there is no one like Geoffrey Mutai (who Farah will face in London) who is clearly a top three marathoner in the world. The pressure is less and the field is more level, all of which favors Bekele.

The champion certainly has the competitive spirit and fitness to challenge for the win. If it comes down to a kick, look out! It’s going to be fun to follow the race and see if Bekele simply sits and kicks or if some of his fellow competitors try to throw their own punches in between miles 18-23, looking to break the legend before he has a chance to kick them down. Will he win is anyone’s guess.